Petrol and diesel prices are likely to be hiked this week as oil companies prepare to pare losses accumulated from keeping rates steady for over four months in the run-up to assembly elections in five states, including UP, despite international oil prices jumping to a 13-year high of $140 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US oil benchmark, rose to $130.50 per barrel on Sunday evening, its highest since July 2008, before retreating. The international benchmark, Brent crude, hit a high of $139.13 at one point overnight, also its highest since July 2008.

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Petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a freeze for the past four months in view of assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh, need to be increased by over Rs 12 per litre by March 16 for fuel retailers to break even. International crude oil prices shot above $120 a barrel for the first time in nine years on Thursday before retreating a little to $111 on Friday, but the gulf between cost and retail rates has only widened. With international oil prices - on which domestic fuel retails are directly benchmarked - spiking in the last two months, state-owned fuel retailers "need a massive price hike of Rs 12.1 per litre on or before March 16, 2022, just to breakeven and a price hike of Rs 15.1 is required" after including margins for oil firms, ICICI Securities said in a report.

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Petrol and diesel price hikes are likely to resume after state elections get over next week to bridge the Rs 9 a litre gap created by international oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel. International crude oil prices shot above $110 a barrel for the first time since mid-2014 on fears that oil and gas supplies from energy giant Russia could be disrupted, either by the conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory western sanctions. The basket of crude oil India buys rose above $102 per barrel on March 1, the highest since August 2014, according to information from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry.

Every 10 per cent rise in crude oil price will shave off around 0.2 percentage point (pp) from India's GDP growth and widen the current account by 0.3 per cent, says Nomura.

International oil prices retreated from an over seven-year high but was still above $100 a barrel and continue to pose threat to India's inflation rate and current account deficit. While there are no supply concerns as the oil route remained open, consumers will feel the pinch when PSU oil firms start passing on the increase in international rates through a revision in petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a pause for over three-and-a-half-months in view of elections in Uttar Pradesh and four other states. The government is "closely monitoring the situation" and will "take appropriate steps as and when required", a top official said. Brent crude oil surged past $105 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since August 2014, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

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The reaction came a day after India said at the United Nations Security Council that 'quiet and constructive diplomacy' is the need of the hour and that any step that could escalate the tension should be avoided.

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The retail inflation rate breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance limit of the RBI for the first time in seven months in January, while the wholesale price index stayed in double-digits for the 10th month in a row, showed two sets of data released by the government on Monday. Retail inflation, the key input for the RBI while reviewing the repo rate every two months, soared during the month mainly because of a spike in certain food items. The previous high for retail inflation was 6.26 per cent in June 2021.

The BSE gauge Sensex tanked over 1,500 points to crack below the 57,000-mark and the NSE Nifty slipped below the 17,000-level in the opening session on Monday, amid heightened tension over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The 30-share Sensex nosedived 1,540.85 points to 56,612.07 in early deals and the broader Nifty plummeted 458.20 points to 16,916.55. On the Sensex chart, all 30 shares were trading with steep to moderate losses -- with SBI, Tata Steel and IndusInd Bank tumbling over 4 per cent.

The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the second consecutive month in January at 12.96 per cent, even though food prices hardened, the government said on Monday. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the tenth consecutive month beginning April 2021. Inflation in December 2021 was 13.56 per cent, while in January 2021, it was 2.51 per cent.

This is following revival of demand from the corporate sector and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), even as a nascent economic recovery is taking shape. Credit growth of scheduled commercial banks had accelerated to 9.2 per cent year-on-year (YoY) by the end of December 2021 after breaching the 7 per cent-mark in November, for the first time since April 2020.

The biggest headwind to the consumption story in FY23 is a sharp decline in government subsidies on food, fertiliser and fuel, and overall decline in revenue expenditure net of interest payments. This, analysts say, will adversely impact purchasing power of households at the lower end of the income pyramid, translating into lower spending on consumer goods and services.

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Investors' wealth has tumbled by over Rs 5.82 lakh crore in three days of market decline. Feeble global cues, foreign fund outflows and concerns over policy tightening by central banks have led to the selling pressure, experts said. Declining for the third straight session on Monday, the 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex nosedived 1,023.63 points or 1.75 per cent to close at 57,621.19. In three days, the benchmark has tanked 1,937.14 points.

'Short term volatility is likely due to various factors, global and domestic; investors may use this as an opportunity to increase the allocation to equities.'

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Striking a different note from its peers, US brokerage Bank of America Securities has maintained that the Reserve Bank will leave rates unchanged next week, recognising growth-focused and capex-driven fiscal expansion, which though poses huge price pressure and interest rate risks later. The RBI's rate setting panel Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its deliberations next Monday and announce the policy moves on Wednesday (February 9) in the backdrop of a massive spike in bond yields post the Budget. Almost all major central banks are in the process of hiking rates to tame inflation.

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Inflation has reappeared as a global issue in both advanced and emerging economies and India needs to be wary of "imported inflation", especially due to high oil prices, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 released on Monday. "Inflation has reappeared as a global issue in both advanced and emerging economies. "India's Consumer Price Index inflation stood at 5.6 per cent YoY in December 2021 which is within the targeted tolerance band," the survey report presented in the Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted.

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Consumer companies have started taking orders via phone calls and are also pushing retailers to order through their B2B applications.

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The Indian economy has recovered 'handsomely' from the pandemic-induced disruptions, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Tuesday, while expressing hope that the recovery will be sustained and the growth rate of 7 to 8 per cent will be restored. Panagariya suggested that the government must now signal its intention to wind down fiscal deficit by cutting it by half-to-one percentage point in 2022-23. "The Indian economy has recovered handsomely, returning to its pre-COVID GDP... "Only private consumption is still below its pre-COVID-19 level," the eminent economist told PTI in an interview.

'This fall is nothing. We could see worse if everybody hits the panic button.'

Schools across the state were closed in the first week of January due to a spike in the coronavirus cases and in the wake of the emergence of the highly infectious Omicron variant.

Police also said that people will have to adhere to all Covid-protocols, such as wearing face masks and maintaining social distancing, at the programme on Rajpath on January 26.

Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh on Sunday said the people of his state, including himself, want the withdrawal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act but only after mutual understanding with the Centre as national security is their top priority.

Delhi reports 11,486 fresh cases with a positivity rate of 16.36 per cent.

Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai held a meeting with experts, and senior ministers and officials of his government to assess the COVID-19 situation in the state and curbs that were put in place to control its spread.

Systematic investment plans (SIPs) of mutual funds (MFs) have seen a spike in demand with new registrations touching a five-year high already this year. Around 19.5 million new SIPs have been registered till December end, as against 14.1 million in the whole of financial year 2020-21 (FY21). Market participants say increasing investor awareness and positive experiences have spurred this increase.

Maharashtra minister Varsha Gaikwad on Thursday said that schools for Classes 1 to 9 in the state can be reopened for offline classroom sessions from January 24.

The Kerala government imposed fresh restrictions in the state as a preventive measure to contain the rising number of COVID-19 cases.